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Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

Lee JR, Raymond B, Bracegirdle TJ, Chadès I, Fuller RA, Shaw JD & Terauds A (2017) Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat. Nature.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

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